开源证券吕明：政策红利下行业分化凸显 关注科技家电赛道投资机遇

Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with the expansion of the trade-in policy stimulating consumption and driving the sector towards smart and green transformation [1][2][3] - White goods and tech appliances are showing strong profit growth, while kitchen appliances are facing revenue declines due to the sluggish real estate market [1][2] Industry Performance - The overall revenue of the home appliance industry has improved significantly compared to last year, driven by the trade-in policy that now covers 12 product categories [2] - The white goods sector has shown resilience, benefiting from national subsidies and improved cost structures, leading to revenue and profit growth that outpaces expectations for 2024 [2] - The TV industry has become a benchmark for policy benefits, with profit improvements driven by domestic subsidies and increased export shares, alongside technological upgrades like Mini LED [2] - The kitchen appliance sector is under pressure, with expected revenue declines in the first half of 2025 due to the real estate market's lack of recovery, although leading companies are gaining market share [2] - The tech appliance sector continues to grow rapidly, with companies like Roborock and Ninebot leading the charge, particularly in the robot vacuum segment, which is expected to see significant sales growth [2][6] Policy Impact - The trade-in policy has engaged over 66 million consumers, directly stimulating consumption by over 270 billion yuan, with retail sales of home appliances increasing by 30.7% year-on-year [3] - The policy has not only activated the existing market but also pushed the industry towards smart and green upgrades, with notable sales increases in energy-efficient and high-end products [3] Transformation Strategies - The home appliance industry is in a transformation phase, requiring breakthroughs through technology, supply chain optimization, and strategic balance [4] - AI technology is being integrated into home appliances, enhancing product design and functionality, particularly in cleaning appliances like robot vacuums [4][5] - Companies are encouraged to build digital supply chain systems to improve efficiency and reduce delivery times, while also creating differentiated solutions to enhance brand loyalty [5] Future Growth Areas - The growth momentum in the home appliance industry is shifting from traditional categories to tech-driven segments, with emerging categories like robot vacuums and lawn mowers expected to see explosive growth [6] - The global market for robot vacuums is projected to exceed 20 million units in 2024, with significant growth in other tech categories as well [6] - Investment opportunities are seen in tech appliance sectors with low penetration rates and high growth potential, particularly in smart cleaning devices [6][7] Competitive Landscape - The smart cleaning appliance sector has transitioned from price competition to differentiation, with leading companies enhancing their market share through product innovation and operational efficiency [7] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong domestic sales growth and international expansion capabilities in the smart cleaning appliance sector [7] - Companies in the white goods sector are expected to maintain stable growth due to favorable policies and high dividend yields, presenting good investment value [7]