国际油价上涨，聚合MDI、TDI价格下跌

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is experiencing mixed price movements, with 36 out of 100 tracked chemical products seeing price increases, while 32 products saw price declines, and 32 remained stable during the week of August 18-24 [1][3]. Chemical Industry Summary - In the week of August 18-24, 47% of tracked chemical products had month-on-month average price increases, while 47% experienced declines, and 6% remained unchanged [1][3]. - The top price gainers included nitric acid, sulfur, PTA, DMF, and epoxy chloropropane, while the largest price decliners were methylcyclosiloxane, acetone, cotton short-staple, NYMEX natural gas, and TDI [3]. Oil Market Summary - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $63.66 per barrel (up 1.37%) and Brent crude oil futures at $67.73 per barrel (up 2.85%) [4]. - As of August 17, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 55,000 barrels from the previous week but a decrease of 1.8 million barrels from the same time last year [4]. - U.S. oil demand averaged 21.51 million barrels per day, up 1.49 million barrels from the previous week, while gasoline demand was 8.84 million barrels per day, down 15,800 barrels [4]. - U.S. crude oil inventories totaled 824.10 million barrels, down 5.80 million barrels from the previous week, with commercial crude oil inventories at 420.70 million barrels, down 6 million barrels [4]. MDI and TDI Market Summary - The average price of polymer MDI as of August 22 was 15,450 yuan/ton, down 1.59% from the previous week, and down 14.64% year-to-date [6]. - The average price of TDI as of August 22 was 15,288 yuan/ton, down 3.43% from the previous week, but up 18.51% year-to-date [7]. - The supply of polymer MDI is tight, while TDI production has increased, but demand remains weak [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on mid-year earnings, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and companies in electronic materials that are increasingly critical under the backdrop of self-sufficiency [2][9]. - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high prices of crude oil, the ongoing recovery of the oil service industry, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in semiconductors and renewable energy [9].