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中原证券:农林牧渔有望迎来估值回归 维持行业“强于大市”评级
智通财经网·2025-08-29 01:47

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine sector is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics as production capacity gradually decreases to reasonable levels under macroeconomic adjustments, with a potential dual increase in supply and demand by the second half of 2025 [1] - In July 2025, the average trading price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 14.55 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.89% but a year-on-year decline of 23.13% [1] - The current breeding stock levels are high, and while supply remains ample, the demand may increase due to reduced imports from the U.S. and the upcoming traditional consumption peak for pork [1] Group 2: Poultry Industry - In July 2025, the average price of white feather broiler chicks was 1.56 yuan/chick, down 0.52 yuan/chick month-on-month, marking a 25.00% decline; the average price of white feather broilers was 3.21 yuan/jin, down 0.30 yuan/jin month-on-month, a decrease of 8.55% [2] - The poultry industry is expected to see profit elasticity gradually released as cost pressures ease and chicken prices stabilize [2] - The seed industry is positioned for investment due to low historical valuations and the potential market space from biobreeding commercialization policies [2] Group 3: Pet Food Industry - In July 2025, China's pet food export volume reached 33,100 tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.67%; cumulative exports from January to July were 201,000 tons, up 6.63% year-on-year [3] - The export value of pet food in July 2025 was $13 million, down 3.85% year-on-year; cumulative export value for the first seven months was $825 million, a decrease of 1.25% year-on-year [3] - The pet food market in China has significant growth potential due to demographic changes and rising living standards, with a trend towards increased online sales and domestic product substitution [3]