发债高峰逼近！全球债市再度承压，欧美长债收益率恐持续走高

Group 1 - In August, the yields on 30-year government bonds in Germany and France rose by approximately 15 and 27 basis points, reaching the highest levels since 2011 [1][2] - The global bond market faced renewed pressure due to persistent inflation concerns and increased fiscal spending and refinancing needs, leading to a decline in investor risk appetite for long-term government bonds [1][2] - Japan's long-term bond yields hit a historical high, while the UK long-end bond yields are expected to record the largest monthly increase since December of the previous year [1][2] Group 2 - The French market is under scrutiny as Prime Minister François Bayrou announced a confidence vote regarding debt reduction plans on September 8 [2] - If the political crisis in France worsens, the spread between French and German bond yields could potentially widen to 100 basis points for the first time since 2012 [2] - The yield on French 10-year government bonds reached a five-month high of 3.54% before slightly retreating to 3.49%, while the German 10-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 2.70% [2] Group 3 - A supply peak in the European and US bond markets is anticipated in the coming months, with an expected issuance of over €100 billion (approximately $117 billion) in European government bonds in September and October [4] - Concerns about supply-demand imbalances have intensified due to weak demand observed in recent auctions of Japanese 10-year and US 30-year bonds [4] - Analysts suggest that as supply surges, investors will require higher yields as compensation, which will further increase market volatility [4] Group 4 - Concerns regarding the sustainability of US fiscal policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve are driving up the risk premium on US Treasury bonds [5] - If inflationary pressures do not fully subside and the Federal Reserve relaxes its policies too quickly due to political pressure, it could trigger a new surge in long-term yields and increased volatility in the bond market [5]