PTA：供需预期偏紧 但市场氛围偏弱下PTA短期承压

Market Overview - On August 28, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a decline, with an improved trading atmosphere in the spot market compared to the previous day. The spot basis softened, and traders primarily engaged in negotiations, with sporadic offers from polyester factories. The trading price range for next week's goods was between 4755 and 4810, with a basis of 20-30 under the 01 contract [1] Profitability - As of August 28, the PTA spot processing fee was around 220 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2511 and TA2601 contracts were 274 yuan/ton and 320 yuan/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of August 28, Dushan Energy was undergoing maintenance with a capacity of 2.5 million tons, and Sanfangxiang (600370) had 1.2 million tons offline. A new 3.2 million ton facility's second line was in production, with load factors currently at 70.4%, down by 2.5% [3] - Demand: As of August 28, polyester plant operations were fluctuating, with a load factor around 89.9%, down by 0.1%. The operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang showed a local decline, with texturing, weaving, and dyeing rates at 78% (down by 1%), 65% (down by 3%), and 72% (down by 0%), respectively. Although there was a slight increase in orders and shipments for certain fabric varieties, new orders have been weak recently, leading to a slowdown in shipments. Weaving factories are facing challenges with insufficient new orders and high finished goods inventory. Additionally, high temperatures in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have affected worker attendance in weaving and dyeing factories, resulting in a temporary decline in downstream operating rates. Currently, downstream raw material procurement is mainly on a wait-and-see basis, with inventory levels at 10-15 days, and some reaching up to 2 months [3] Market Outlook - With persistently low processing margins, there has been an increase in unplanned maintenance for PTA facilities in August. The supply-demand situation for PTA is expected to improve compared to previous expectations for August and September. Although there are still expectations for a strong demand in September and October, the marginal decline in terminal load factors this week and the anticipated production cuts in some bottle chip factories limit the overall increase in polyester load factors. Additionally, the weak commodity market atmosphere has negatively impacted PTA's absolute prices. The strategy suggests monitoring support around 4750 and looking for low long opportunities, with a focus on rolling short positions in TA1-5 [4]