不锈钢：盘面维持震荡 成本支撑和弱需求博弈

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with a slight decrease in inventory levels, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1][2][3] Pricing - As of August 28, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,100 yuan/ton, and in Foshan, it is 13,050 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] - The basis price is 420 yuan/ton, which has decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Raw Materials - The nickel ore market is relatively stable, with 1.3% nickel ore resources trading at FOB 32 and CIF 42, showing a month-on-month increase [1] - Nickel pig iron prices are showing a slight upward trend, with a recent bid price of 940 yuan/nickel, up by 40 yuan/nickel from the last public inquiry [1] - The chromium ore market is experiencing tight supply, leading to rising prices due to strong cost support [1] Supply - In August, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.3041 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.29% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.64% [1] - The output for the 300 series is estimated at 1.7598 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [1] Inventory - As of August 29, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 499,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,500 tons [2] - The stainless steel futures inventory is 100,431 tons, down by 18,209 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with prices stable but affected by overall market sentiment and reduced high-priced resource circulation [3] - Downstream purchasing activity remains low, primarily driven by essential needs [3] - The recent expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and easing export pressures from U.S.-China tariff negotiations are contributing to a cautious market outlook [3] - Despite improvements in steel mill profits and increased production motivation, the overall demand remains weak, with traditional downstream sectors showing sluggish demand [3]