从深圳旧改到盐湖提锂，华联控股正在下一盘“穿越周期”的大棋

Core Viewpoint - The company is navigating a differentiated path of "real estate bottoming out + new energy transformation" amidst a deep adjustment in the real estate industry and slow recovery in sales demand [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 214 million yuan and a net profit of 6.48 million yuan, with total assets of 7.582 billion yuan and net assets of 5.056 billion yuan [1] - The company maintains a low debt advantage, with a debt-to-asset ratio significantly lower than the industry average, providing a solid financial cushion for its "cross-cycle" strategy [1] Real Estate Development - The "Yupin Luanshan" project in Shenzhen, with a planned construction area of approximately 79,600 square meters, is expected to generate a saleable value exceeding 3 billion yuan, covering the company's total operating income over the past three years [2][3] - The project is anticipated to become a core performance contributor to the company's real estate development business over the next 2-3 years [4] - The company has a stable cash flow from 227,200 square meters of self-owned properties and 4,715 parking spaces, with rental income from properties in Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Hangzhou totaling 213 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.36% [4] Urban Renewal and Policy Adaptation - The company views the latest "guaranteed rental housing" policy in Shenzhen as a potential cash flow "ballast" for future projects, rather than a traditional quick turnover profit source [5] - The urban renewal projects have shifted from "high premium" to "long cycle, low leverage," making self-owned cash flow essential for survival in the current market [6] New Energy Strategy - The company has invested 430 million yuan through the Zhongbao Qingyuan Huihai Industrial Fund, holding 24% and 36% stakes in Shenzhen Juneng and Zhuhai Juneng, respectively, while also entering carbon management and zero-carbon agriculture [7] - The focus on lithium extraction from salt lakes is positioned as a "growth option," with the company emphasizing the high technical barriers and long verification cycles associated with the adsorption agent segment [7] - The company has maintained financial flexibility by adopting a "fund + direct investment" approach, allowing it to avoid heavy asset investments while retaining options for future capital increases [8] Market Response and Future Outlook - The company's stock price has risen over 10% since the completion of share buybacks on July 26, outperforming the industry index despite a significant decline in real estate development profits [8] - The demand for lithium is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the next five years, with the company positioned to benefit from the commercialization of low-cost lithium extraction technologies [8]