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中金:维持携程集团-S(09961)跑赢行业评级 上调目标价至588.5港元
智通财经网·2025-08-29 03:49

Core Viewpoint - Company maintains revenue expectations for 2025 and 2026, with an 8% increase in 2025 non-GAAP net profit forecast to 17.7 billion yuan, and a maintained forecast of 18.9 billion yuan for 2026 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, company reported a 16% increase in revenue to 14.9 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 1%, driven by better-than-expected accommodation revenue [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2025 was 5 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 34%, surpassing market expectations by 15% due to controlled marketing expenses and higher-than-expected government subsidies [2] - The company completed its previously announced $400 million shareholder return plan ahead of schedule and approved a new buyback plan of up to $5 billion in August 2025 [2] Group 2: Domestic Hotel Performance - In Q2 2025, domestic hotel accommodation revenue reached 6.2 billion yuan, a 21% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations by 3% due to higher hotel booking volumes [3] - Despite a lackluster industry performance during the summer, the company outperformed the market in night stays, with expectations of low double-digit year-on-year growth in domestic hotel night stays for Q3 2025 [3] Group 3: International Travel Performance - In Q2 2025, company’s outbound flight and hotel bookings recovered to over 120% of 2019 levels, continuing to outperform the industry’s recovery rate of 84% [4] - The company anticipates a slight slowdown in year-on-year growth for outbound revenue due to high base effects from last year's summer travel [4] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - In Q2, international OTA booking volume increased by over 60%, with Trip.com’s revenue share rising to 14% [5] - Despite increased hotel price subsidies from international competitors in Thailand and South Korea, the overall market remains fragmented, and Trip.com’s differentiated strategy has effectively maintained over 70% growth in hotel revenue [5] - The company is also expanding in the Middle East, with expectations of maintaining over 50% year-on-year growth for Trip.com in Q3 2025 [5]