国金证券：给予迦南智能增持评级

Core Viewpoint - Canaan Intelligent (迦南智能) is facing short-term performance pressure, with a focus on deepening its overseas and new energy business layout, and has been given an "Accumulate" rating by Guojin Securities [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Canaan Intelligent reported revenue of 400 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70 million yuan, down 44.5% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 25.8%, a decline of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 250 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.9%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, down 44.3% year-on-year [2] Operational Analysis - The core business of smart metering and systems is experiencing short-term fluctuations due to the bidding rhythm, with a significant revenue drop of 36.3% to 320 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [3] - The gross profit margin for the core business fell to 28.3%, down 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a slowdown in the State Grid's bidding and delivery rhythm [3] - Revenue from lower-margin metering boxes and accessories increased by 85.4% to 80 million yuan, contributing to the overall decline in gross profit margin [3] - It is expected that the core business will recover to positive growth in the second half of 2025 as the bidding rhythm resumes [3] Growth Strategy - The company is making steady progress in its second growth curve, with breakthroughs in overseas and new energy businesses [4] - In June 2025, Canaan Intelligent established a joint venture foreign trade company, Canaan International, in Hangzhou to promote smart metering and new energy products abroad [4] - The company is enhancing its local service capabilities and steadily increasing its market share overseas through increased R&D investment and local factory collaborations [4] - In the new energy sector, the company has successfully won bids for seven segments from state-owned enterprises, expanding its charging pile products into various application scenarios [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Based on the company's semi-annual report and the latest industry assessments, it is projected that the net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 200 million, 230 million, and 280 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 4%, 16%, and 19% [5] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 20, 17, and 15 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5]