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研报掘金丨华安证券:维持温氏股份“买入”评级,将坚持稳健发展策略
Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-08-29 05:50

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates that Wens Foodstuff Group's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is expected to reach 3.47 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 159.1% [1] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the company's debt-to-asset ratio is 50.6%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from March [1] - The company aims to continue its prudent development strategy, targeting a reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio to around 45% [1] Industry Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission is strictly implementing pig production policies, while the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is guiding a reduction of 1 million breeding sows to prevent significant fluctuations in production and prices [1] - It is anticipated that the national breeding sow inventory will enter a declining trend, with pig prices and profitability for pig enterprises expected to exceed 2025 levels in 2026 [1] Production Forecast - The company is projected to have a fattening pig output of 35 million heads, 38 million heads, and 39.9 million heads for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 8.6%, and 5.0% [1] - The expected output for meat chickens is 1.268 billion, 1.332 billion, and 1.398 billion for the same years, with consistent year-on-year growth of 5% [1] Profitability Projections - Corresponding net profits attributable to shareholders are forecasted at 9.474 billion yuan, 12.546 billion yuan, and 13.895 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2.6%, 32.4%, and 10.8% respectively [1] - Previous net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were 10.329 billion yuan, 10.597 billion yuan, and 12.086 billion yuan, with adjustments made due to revisions in pig output, livestock prices, and breeding costs [1] Company Position - The company is recognized as the second-largest pig farming enterprise and the largest yellow-feathered chicken farming enterprise in the country, maintaining a cost structure within the industry's top tier [1] - The company maintains its "buy" rating unchanged [1]