短期PVC仍以弱现实基本面为主 价格区间偏震荡

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The PVC production capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly week-on-week but shows a year-on-year increase, indicating mixed market conditions for the PVC industry [1]. Production and Capacity - Current PVC production capacity utilization is at 76.02%, down 1.59% week-on-week but up 1.20% year-on-year [1]. - The calcium carbide method utilization is at 77.25%, up 0.44% week-on-week and up 3.56% year-on-year [1]. - The ethylene method utilization is at 72.95%, down 6.64% week-on-week and down 5.12% year-on-year [1]. - The maintenance loss for PVC production this week is 79,320 tons, an increase of 7,620 tons from the previous period [1]. Inventory and Demand - As of August 28, PVC social inventory has increased by 5.10% to 896,300 tons, but shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.66% [1]. - In East China, inventory is at 826,800 tons, up 5.45% week-on-week and down 3.81% year-on-year [1]. - In South China, inventory is at 69,500 tons, up 1.14% week-on-week and up 62.67% year-on-year [1]. Export and Trade Dynamics - India remains the largest export destination for Chinese PVC powder, with a recent anti-dumping investigation resulting in increased tariffs of $122-232 per ton on Chinese imports [1]. - The implementation timeline for these tariffs is not yet announced, leading to increased inquiries and purchases from India [1]. Market Outlook - Newhu Futures anticipates that the operating rate will stabilize around 75% after maintenance, with weak calcium carbide costs and strong caustic soda prices providing some support [2]. - The real estate sector is experiencing slow new starts and construction, leading to low demand and increased inventory levels [2]. - Guantong Futures notes that without actual policy changes, the PVC industry faces significant pressure, with expectations of price fluctuations and potential downward trends [2].