Core Viewpoint - The domestic zinc ingot inventory is increasing, while overseas London zinc inventory is decreasing, leading to a divergence in supply and demand dynamics, which may result in an expanded price gap between domestic and international markets. This situation could potentially boost domestic demand as the traditional peak consumption season approaches, with expectations for spot zinc prices to surpass 23,000 yuan/ton in September [1][8]. Inventory Dynamics - As of August 18, domestic zinc ingot social inventory reached 116,100 tons, reflecting an increase of over 27% since early August, marking five consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, indicating weakened market consumption during the traditional off-peak season [1]. - In contrast, London zinc inventory has decreased from 75,850 tons to a near two-year low, primarily due to supply tightening caused by high energy costs affecting European smelters and increased zinc consumption driven by infrastructure investments in India and Southeast Asia [3]. Price Trends - The current market shows a "tight supply abroad and loose supply domestically" scenario, with high domestic inventory suppressing prices while overseas inventory depletion supports international zinc prices. The domestic spot prices have remained low, while London zinc prices have shown an upward trend, leading to a declining Shanghai-London price ratio, which has approached a low point not seen since May 2024 [5]. Short-term Outlook - Domestic social inventory accumulation may continue into September, while overseas supply tightness is expected to persist. The divergence in price trends is likely to continue, with the Shanghai-London price ratio potentially declining further. However, increased demand for domestic electrolytic zinc from European markets and infrastructure projects in India and Southeast Asia may help alleviate the oversupply situation domestically [7]. - The upcoming traditional consumption peak season ("Golden September and Silver October") is anticipated to provide a dual boost to domestic zinc demand, with expectations of a 10%-15% increase in demand for galvanized sheets and zinc alloys due to seasonal recovery in real estate completions and automotive production [7]. Price Forecast - Short-term domestic spot prices are expected to fluctuate between 22,000 and 23,000 yuan/ton. As the peak season effects become more pronounced, spot zinc prices are projected to break through the 23,000 yuan/ton resistance level and align more closely with London zinc price trends. However, given the high domestic inventory, the pace of price increases may be moderate, warranting close attention to inventory depletion rates and actual downstream purchasing activities [8].
国内外锌库存走势分化或带动锌出口需求增加 进而为锌价提供支撑
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-29 06:50