美联储首选通胀指标今夜来袭！7月核心PCE同比恐升至2.9%，关税成本加速传导

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release the personal income and spending report, with expectations that the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index will remain stable in July, but not unchanged [1] - Economists predict a month-on-month increase of 0.3% for the Core PCE price index in July, consistent with June's growth, while the year-on-year increase is expected to rise from 2.8% in June to 2.9%, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [1] - The overall PCE index is forecasted to show a month-on-month increase of 0.2% in July, down from 0.3% in June, while the year-on-year increase is expected to remain at 2.6% [1] Group 2 - Investors are focusing on price changes in categories with high import dependence, such as furniture and appliances, to assess the impact of Trump's tariff policies [2] - The impact of tariffs is expected to gradually reflect in consumer prices, with predictions indicating that the overall PCE index will increase by 0.2% month-on-month, while the Core PCE index is expected to rise by 0.4% [2] - The transmission of tariffs to consumer prices is seen as a gradual process, with potential peaks in price increases expected by the end of this year or early next year [2] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs is likely to be most evident in the prices of manufactured goods, including durable goods like furniture and appliances, as well as some food prices [3] - Housing inflation is currently easing, which may offset some of the inflationary pressures from rising manufactured goods prices [3] - The key question remains how much housing inflation can ease and to what extent it can counterbalance the overall inflation pressure from rising manufactured goods prices [3] Group 4 - The upcoming personal income and spending report is expected to show robust consumer spending in July, driven by tax credit policies and increased demand for non-durable goods and services [4] - The resilience of the U.S. economy is noted, despite trade policy uncertainties leading to more volatility in economic forecasts for 2025 [4]