Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2025-08-29 07:52Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing challenges due to upstream inventory accumulation and a decline in terminal demand, leading to a complex situation of rising prices amidst high inventory levels [1][3][11]. Upstream Price and Inventory Dynamics - The recent surge in multi-crystalline silicon prices has not effectively transmitted through the industry chain to downstream sectors, raising concerns about the sustainability of the price increase [1][3]. - In the first half of the year, domestic multi-crystalline silicon production was approximately 596,000 tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 44.1%, while inventory dropped from about 400,000 tons at the end of 2024 to approximately 366,000 tons by the end of June [1][2]. - Despite a production increase to around 107,800 tons in July (up 5.7% month-on-month), the anticipated production for September is projected to be between 125,000 and 130,000 tons, leading to an expected inventory rise to approximately 390,000 tons by the end of September [2][3]. Midstream Pricing Challenges - The price increase in multi-crystalline silicon has not led to a corresponding rise in photovoltaic module prices due to sufficient supply and resistance from downstream demand [5][6]. - The recent reports of "shortages and price increases" in photovoltaic modules are primarily structural and phase-related, rather than a direct result of upstream price hikes [6][7]. Downstream Demand Decline - The newly installed solar power capacity in July was only 11.04 million kilowatts, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.55%, indicating a downward trend in demand [8][9]. - The decline in demand is attributed to a combination of policy changes, market conditions, and the industry's transition from rapid growth to high-quality development [9][10]. Industry Outlook and Solutions - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to help stabilize the market by curbing low-price competition, but its effectiveness in addressing upstream inventory issues remains uncertain [11][12]. - Key strategies for overcoming the current challenges include industry self-discipline, technological innovation, and expanding into new value chains such as energy storage and digital services [12].