宏观氛围好转 短期PTA维持震荡格局

Core Viewpoint - PTA futures experienced a slight decline of 0.29%, closing at 4784.00 yuan/ton, indicating a downward trend in the market [1] Industry Summary - A 1.2 million ton PTA facility in East China has recently been shut down, with an uncertain restart timeline. The new 3.2 million ton PTA facility is currently operating at 80-90% capacity [2] - As of the week ending August 28, PTA factory inventory stands at 3.81 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous week and up 0.05 days year-on-year [2] - On August 28, the number of PTA futures warehouse receipts was 29,938, a decrease of 1,002 from the previous trading day [2] Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures noted that aside from increased short positions in PTA, the overall market has shown a downward trend. However, adjustments in domestic and Korean petrochemical capacities may stabilize the sector in the short term, with environmental regulations causing temporary shutdowns in Huizhou providing some support. The basis has slightly recovered, reducing to levels seen in January to mid-February. Downstream operating rates have rebounded to 89.9%, with inventory replenishment accelerating ahead of the peak season, suggesting a potential slight inventory reduction in September [3] - Ningzheng Futures highlighted a decrease in PTA operating rates and social inventory. With an improving macroeconomic environment and expectations for traditional demand peaks in September and October, downstream polyester operating rates are stabilizing, although sustainability remains uncertain. On the cost side, the supply-demand outlook for PX has weakened marginally in August, with crude oil showing a weak fluctuation [3]