产量增加叠加需求下滑,光伏涨价遭遇拦路虎

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is currently facing challenges due to upstream inventory accumulation and a decline in terminal demand, leading to a complex situation of rising prices amidst high inventory levels [1][2][3]. Upstream Price and Inventory Issues - The recent surge in multi-crystalline silicon prices has occurred despite an increase in inventory, with production in July rising to approximately 107,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.7% [2]. - The expected production for September is projected to be between 125,000 to 130,000 tons, exceeding the monthly demand by about 16,000 tons, indicating a growing oversupply situation [2][3]. - The average price of N-type raw materials increased from 34,400 yuan per ton at the end of June to 47,900 yuan per ton by August 27, marking a short-term increase of approximately 38% [2]. Midstream Price Transmission Challenges - Despite the price increases in upstream multi-crystalline silicon, midstream photovoltaic module manufacturers report that supply remains sufficient, and any price increases are limited due to weak downstream demand [5][6]. - The recent price hikes in modules are not uniformly successful, as the demand side does not support significant price increases, leading to only moderate adjustments [5][6]. Downstream Demand Decline - The newly installed solar power generation capacity in July was only 11.04 million kilowatts, a significant year-on-year decrease of 47.55% and a month-on-month decrease of 23.12% [8][9]. - This decline in demand is attributed to a combination of policy changes, market conditions, and the industry's transition from rapid growth to a focus on high-quality development [9][10]. Industry Outlook and Solutions - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to help the industry escape low-price competition, but the current weak terminal demand hampers effective price transmission across the supply chain [11][12]. - To address the inventory issues, companies are encouraged to self-regulate production and avoid blind expansion and price wars [12]. - Key strategies for breaking the industry deadlock include industry self-discipline, technological innovation, and expanding into new value chains such as energy storage and digital services [12].