国泰海通证券：未来企业利润全面修复需政策发力提振下游需求

Core Viewpoint - The overall decline in corporate profits has narrowed in July, showing a differentiated structure primarily due to profit recovery driven by "anti-involution" policies, supply contraction, price increases, and support from high-end manufacturing demand, while downstream consumer demand remains weak, leading to marginal profit shrinkage in downstream industries [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Corporate Profit Trends - In July, the decline in corporate profits showed signs of narrowing, indicating a potential recovery phase [1] - The recovery is largely dependent on supply-side adjustments and price increases rather than robust consumer demand [1] Structural Analysis - The profit recovery is characterized by a structural divergence, with some sectors benefiting from high-end manufacturing demand while others face challenges due to weak downstream consumption [1] - Downstream industries are experiencing marginal profit shrinkage, highlighting the uneven nature of the recovery [1] Inventory Cycle and Policy Impact - The current inventory cycle is marked by proactive destocking driven by policy measures [1] - For a comprehensive recovery in corporate profits, there is a need for policy initiatives to stimulate downstream demand, transitioning from structural recovery to a broader profit rebound [1]