“股债跷跷板”对债券中长期冲击有限，关注十年国债ETF（511260）

Group 1 - The recent bond market adjustment is primarily driven by emotional factors and the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with limited impact on the bond market from stock market fluctuations [1][2] - Historical data indicates that stock market gains are based on expectations of improved policies and economic fundamentals, with some flexible funds shifting from bonds to stocks, but the long-term pricing of stocks and bonds will revert to fundamental logic [2][3] - The main force behind bond allocation is banks, which held over 99 trillion yuan in bonds by the end of July, accounting for more than half of China's total bond market [2][3] Group 2 - The current loan rates do not significantly increase the attractiveness of bonds for banks, meaning there is no substantial crowding out effect on bond investments from loans [3] - Despite some flexible funds withdrawing from the bond market, banks and insurance companies are actively buying bonds, indicating that allocation-type funds are seizing the opportunity presented by the market adjustment [4][5] - Data shows that while some trading-type funds are reducing their duration, banks and insurance companies are increasing their bond duration, suggesting a strategic shift towards bond accumulation during market volatility [4][5] Group 3 - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a favorable investment option due to its low fees and ease of trading, with ten-year bonds offering higher coupon rates compared to shorter-duration bonds [5]