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蛋价旺季不旺连创新低 何时能涨?
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-29 13:11

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) phenomenon due to dual pressures from supply and demand, leading to a significant decline in egg prices despite the traditional peak season approaching [3][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 29, the main contract for egg futures closed at 2939 yuan/ton, a nearly 11% drop from July 31, indicating a bearish outlook for egg prices driven by supply factors [2][3]. - The average egg price in major production areas was reported at 3.22 yuan/kg, while in major sales areas it was 3.15 yuan/kg, marking a six-year low [3]. - Increased production capacity due to a long-term profitable environment for egg-laying hens has led to a sustained growth in egg supply, with the number of laying hens exceeding 1.3 billion [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The current bearish sentiment in the market is exacerbated by a slow pace of downstream procurement, as consumer demand is affected by a late Mid-Autumn Festival and a decline in restaurant consumption [3][4]. - The egg futures market has seen a record high in positions held, indicating a significant concentration of capital that amplifies price declines [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be a temporary increase in demand due to school and festival preparations, it is unlikely to offset the high supply pressure [5][6]. Future Outlook - The egg market is expected to face continued pressure, with any potential rebound in prices being limited due to high inventory levels and the need for time to digest cold storage eggs [5][6]. - The reduction in the age of hens being culled is a positive sign, but historical data indicates that a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics will take longer to materialize [6].