国茂股份(603915)：业绩短期承压 聚焦具身智能新机遇

Group 1 - The company achieved revenue of 1.29 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 107 million yuan, a decrease of 26.97% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 688 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.75%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 64 million yuan, a decrease of 21.86% [1] - The company's revenue recovery is attributed to the stabilization and improvement of the domestic reducer industry, while net profit is under pressure due to intensified market competition [1] Group 2 - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 20.46%, a decrease of 3.07 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2025 gross margin at 21.20%, down 2.80 percentage points [2] - The gross margin decline is primarily due to fierce price competition in the reducer industry and slight impacts from changes in accounting policies [2] - The company's net profit margin for H1 2025 was 8.43%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio was 10.6%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [2] Group 3 - As of H1 2025, the company's contract liabilities were 69 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.76%, and inventory was 587 million yuan, down 7.38% [3] - The company's net cash flow from operating activities was -19 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 116.59%, mainly due to reduced net profit and a decrease in bill discounting [3] - The company is seizing opportunities in the embodied intelligence sector, focusing on harmonic and precision reducers, and has established a joint venture in July 2025 to develop robotic reducer ecosystems [3] Group 4 - The company maintains net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 300 million, 343 million, and 400 million yuan respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 35, 31, and 27 times [3] - The company continues to enhance competitiveness through the introduction of new products and maintains an "accumulate" rating [3]