【财经分析】日本财务省征询削减超长期国债发行 收益率压制效果面临重重考验

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Ministry of Finance is seeking opinions from major traders on reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term government bonds to address severe volatility in the bond market, following previous measures that have not yielded the expected results [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - In June, the Ministry announced a significant reduction in the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds, planning to cut the total issuance of 20, 30, and 40-year bonds by 3.2 trillion yen (approximately 22 billion USD) by March next year, doubling the initial draft [2]. - The adjustments aim to alleviate concerns over an oversupply of Japanese government bonds, especially after the central bank reduced its bond purchases [2][3]. - Analysts highlight structural contradictions in the Ministry's approach, suggesting that further adjustments may be necessary [2]. Group 2: Market Response - The Japanese bond market is currently facing selling pressure due to multiple factors, with investor concerns about the future fiscal outlook being paramount [2][3]. - Following the ruling coalition's loss in the upper house elections in July, there are expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures that could lead to a significant increase in bond issuance [2]. - High inflation rates, with July's core CPI rising 3.1% year-on-year, are also driving market expectations for normalization of monetary policy [3]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - There has been a notable decline in overseas investor demand, with net purchases of Japanese government bonds with maturities over 10 years dropping to 480 billion yen in July, only one-third of June's figures [3]. - Domestic institutional investors are also changing their behavior, with trust banks net purchasing 1.47 trillion yen of ultra-long-term bonds, which is about 34% lower than the five-year average [3][4]. - Life insurance companies are expected to become net sellers of ultra-long-term bonds for the first time in history this year [3]. Group 4: Central Bank Challenges - The Bank of Japan faces a complex policy dilemma, as its inaction in raising interest rates amid persistent inflation has heightened market fears of a forced significant rate hike in the future [5]. - Market participants believe that merely consulting and making minor adjustments to bond issuance may not stabilize the market; a clearer signal of monetary policy normalization from the Bank of Japan is deemed necessary [5][6]. Group 5: Fiscal Pressures - The rising interest rates on government bonds are expected to lead to an increase in the budget for debt servicing, with the Ministry planning to allocate 32.3865 trillion yen (approximately 1.57 trillion RMB) for debt repayment in the 2026 budget, which is about 4 trillion yen higher than the original budget for 2025 [5][6]. - The increasing interest burden will further limit the flexibility of fiscal policy [5]. Group 6: Global Implications - The stability of the Japanese bond market has implications beyond its borders, as Japan is the world's largest creditor and the third-largest bond market [6]. - The normalization of interest rates in Japan will influence global capital flows and asset prices, making the coordination of policies between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank a focal point for market participants [6].