Annaly vs. Arbor Realty: Which mREIT Stock Has Better Upside?

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management (NLY) is positioned as a more favorable investment compared to Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) due to its robust liquidity, sustainable dividend, and improving financial outlook, while ABR faces challenges with weak liquidity and a recent dividend cut [1][21]. Group 1: Annaly Capital Management (NLY) - NLY focuses on enhancing liquidity and reducing leverage, with total assets available for financing amounting to $7.4 billion, including $4.7 billion in unencumbered Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [2][10]. - The company has a monthly dividend yield of 13.3% and a payout ratio of 99%, having increased its dividend only once in the past five years [3][10]. - NLY's investment strategy includes traditional Agency MBSs for downside protection and investments in non-agency and credit-focused asset classes to enhance returns [4]. - As of March 31, 2025, NLY's investment portfolio totaled $89.5 billion, and the company is acquiring newly originated mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) to strengthen its position [5]. - With declining mortgage rates, NLY is expected to see improvements in book value and net interest spread, positively impacting its financials [6]. - NLY shares have appreciated by 23.4% this year, while trading at a forward P/E of 7.14X, lower than its five-year median of 7.22X, indicating it is trading at a discount compared to the industry average [9][13][15]. Group 2: Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) - ABR primarily focuses on originating and servicing loans for multi-family, single-family, and commercial real estate assets, benefiting from improved housing affordability due to lower mortgage rates [7]. - The current dividend yield for ABR is 10.15%, with a payout ratio of 92%, but the company reduced its dividend by 30.3% to 30 cents per share in May 2025 due to weak liquidity [8][10]. - As of June 30, 2025, ABR had cash and cash equivalents of $504 million against long-term debt of $5.1 billion, raising concerns about its liquidity and capital distribution sustainability [8]. - ABR shares have declined by 6.6% this year, and it is trading at a forward P/E of 9.78X, which is higher than its five-year median of 8.76X, indicating a premium valuation [9][13][15]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ABR indicates year-over-year sales declines of 17.6% for 2025 and a drop of 36.8% in earnings for the same year, with EPS estimates moving downward over the past 60 days [16][20].