中国科学院院士、国务院参事朱彤：交通行业如何科学降碳减污

Core Viewpoint - The promotion of electric vehicles is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality in the transportation sector, which is a significant source of CO2 emissions in China [4][1]. Group 1: Transportation Sector Emissions - The transportation sector accounts for 9% of CO2 emissions in China, with a significant share of energy consumption from diesel and gasoline [2]. - In 2021, the transportation sector represented 8% of China's total energy consumption, with diesel and gasoline consumption accounting for 69% and 72%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - Recent policies emphasize the need to enhance the cleanliness of motor vehicles, aiming for at least 80% of new public transport vehicles to be electric in key areas [3]. - By 2027, the goal is for new energy vehicles to make up 45% of new cars, with a focus on phasing out old internal combustion engine vehicles [3]. Group 3: Emission Reduction Measures - Key measures for emission reduction include improving vehicle efficiency, promoting electric vehicles, optimizing transportation structure, and reducing emissions in upstream power generation and hydrogen production [2][5]. - The cumulative CO2 equivalent reduction from various measures is projected to be significant, with vehicle efficiency improvements expected to reduce emissions by 6,003 million tons from 2035 to 2060 [5]. Group 4: Market Saturation and Future Projections - The Chinese automotive market is expected to reach saturation around 2040, with a peak vehicle ownership of approximately 440 million by 2060 under a zero-emission scenario [5]. - The transition to zero emissions for passenger vehicles will primarily rely on pure electric vehicles, while commercial vehicles will see a rapid increase in electric adoption between 2030 and 2040 [6]. Group 5: Regional Differences in Emission Reduction - Each province in China has unique conditions affecting the implementation of carbon reduction strategies, necessitating tailored approaches rather than a one-size-fits-all policy [7]. - The classification of provinces into five categories based on their electric vehicle penetration and development potential will guide future sales projections and policy implementations [8][9][10]. Group 6: Strategic Recommendations - A combination of strict intensity control and flexible emission standards is recommended for different regions, particularly in high-emission areas [13].