5个月新高！美联储最青睐通胀指标升温，如何影响降息前景

Core Insights - The core PCE price index in the U.S. rose to a year-on-year increase of 2.9% in July, indicating a slight uptick in inflationary pressures [1][2] - Consumer spending saw its largest increase in four months, accelerating to 0.5% in July, primarily driven by durable goods purchases [2][3] - The labor market remains weak, with average monthly job growth significantly lower than previous years, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3][5] Inflation Trends - The PCE price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [2] - Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest since February [2] - Service costs rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflation in the service sector, which is less affected by tariffs [2][4] Economic Outlook - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in September will consider the July PCE data alongside the non-farm payroll and CPI reports [4] - Rising tariffs are expected to increase business costs, potentially leading to higher consumer prices, as indicated by recent warnings from retailers and automakers [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is currently at 84%, reflecting a growing consensus within the Federal Reserve, despite concerns about inflation [5][6]