5个月新高！美联储最青睐通胀指标升温 如何影响降息前景

Group 1 - The July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [2] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and accelerated to a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, the highest level since February [2] - Consumer spending accelerated to a growth rate of 0.5% in July, marking the highest increase since March, largely driven by durable goods purchases [2][3] Group 2 - The low unemployment rate supports steady growth in consumption and wages, with July wages increasing by 0.6% month-on-month [3] - Despite rising operational costs due to tariffs, employers are hesitant to increase hiring, with average monthly job growth at 35,000 over the past three months, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period last year [3] - The PCE data is one of three key reports ahead of the Federal Reserve's September meeting, alongside the August non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [4] Group 3 - Many Wall Street economists expect inflation to rise further due to increasing business costs and reduced inventory, with retailers and automakers warning that tariffs are raising their costs [4] - The manufacturing PMI in August expanded at the fastest rate in over three years, contributing to ongoing inflationary pressures, with the sales price index reaching a three-year high [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is at 84%, with a growing consensus within the Federal Reserve, although concerns about inflation remain [5]