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无视高估值!美股越贵越涨,背后到底是什么新逻辑 | 巴伦投资
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-30 06:38

Core Viewpoint - The premium investors are paying for U.S. stocks is largely justified due to growth expectations, the dominance of the tech sector, and substantial market liquidity, which is likely to persist [3][4]. Group 1: Market Valuation and Performance - The MSCI U.S. Index currently has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 23 times the expected earnings of its constituents for the next 12 months, which is comparable to the S&P 500 Index [4]. - Since the liberation day, the MSCI U.S. Index has increased by nearly 30%, while the overall expected earnings of the S&P 500 Index have only risen by about 5% [4]. - The high premium for U.S. assets may reflect market confidence in continued earnings growth beyond the typical 12-month benchmark used for global stock valuations [5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Trends - Major investors continue to buy high-priced stocks while avoiding lower-priced alternatives, indicating a strong preference for U.S. equities [3][5]. - Long-term investors are holding a higher proportion of stocks from the "Magnificent Seven" tech companies compared to the S&P 500, while their holdings in non-"Magnificent Seven" stocks are about 20% lower than the benchmark [5]. - Investors favor tech and growth stocks due to their perceived resilience during economic downturns and lower exposure to tariffs [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The trend of U.S. stocks outperforming other markets is expected to continue, with the MSCI U.S. Index likely maintaining a higher valuation than most comparable indices over the next year [6]. - The gap in earnings per share (EPS) growth between the "Magnificent Seven" and other S&P 500 constituents is narrowing, but the "Magnificent Seven" are still expected to maintain their dominance in future earnings [6].