Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-08-30 07:10Core Viewpoint - The report by Guojin Securities on Changjiang Electric Power highlights stable pricing, increased volume, and cost optimization, leading to a long-term value benchmark, with a "buy" rating assigned to the company [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Changjiang Electric Power achieved revenue of 36.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.06 billion yuan, up 14.9% year-on-year [2]. - For the second quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 19.68 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.7% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 7.88 billion yuan, which is a 6.5% increase year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The total power generation in the first half of 2025 increased by 5.0% year-on-year, with a total of 126.66 billion kWh generated [3]. - The first quarter saw significant water inflow, leading to a 9.4% increase in power generation, while the second quarter experienced a slowdown due to reduced water inflow, resulting in a 1.6% increase in power generation [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price remained stable, and a decrease in depreciation expenses contributed to an increase in gross profit margin to 56.1% [3]. Financial Position - The total interest-bearing debt decreased to approximately 294.86 billion yuan, a reduction of about 10.37 billion yuan year-on-year [4]. - Investment cash flow outflow increased by approximately 1.68 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to increased investments in pumped storage projects [4]. Dividend and Shareholder Plans - The company announced a dividend plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders from 2026 to 2030 [4]. - A shareholder buyback plan was also announced, with intentions to repurchase 4 to 8 billion yuan worth of shares over the next 12 months, reflecting confidence in the company's asset value [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 33.25 billion yuan, 35.97 billion yuan, and 38.09 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.36, 1.47, and 1.56 yuan [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE valuations of 21x, 19x, and 18x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5]. Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, 15 institutions provided ratings for the stock, with 11 recommending "buy" and 4 recommending "hold" [9].