综述丨土耳其改革汇率保护机制 释放市场化过渡信号

Core Viewpoint - Turkey is transitioning away from the unconventional foreign exchange protection deposit mechanism (KKM), signaling a move towards more market-oriented macroeconomic policies [1][2] Group 1: Mechanism Overview - The KKM was introduced in December 2021 to stabilize the Turkish lira by allowing individuals and businesses to deposit lira in special accounts with state compensation during currency depreciation [1] - The mechanism has faced increasing pressure in recent years, leading policymakers to view it as a contributor to rising fiscal deficits and limited monetary policy flexibility [1] Group 2: Policy Changes - The Central Bank of Turkey announced on August 23 that no new accounts or renewals for the KKM will be accepted, indicating a gradual phase-out of the mechanism [1] - Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek noted that the exit strategy from the KKM and tightening monetary policy are leading to a steady decline in foreign exchange protection deposit balances [1] Group 3: Market Confidence and Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the withdrawal of the KKM will alleviate the fiscal burden on the government, restore monetary policy independence, and enhance market confidence in government policies [2] - The Central Bank emphasized that ending the KKM does not equate to abandoning financial stability oversight, with plans to adjust reserve requirements and end tax exemptions to support robust monetary policy transmission [2] - Future tightening policies will continue until inflation shows sustained decline and price stability is achieved, with a focus on attracting capital inflows through more transparent market mechanisms [2]