兴蓉环境(000598)：量价齐升驱动业绩稳增 分红能力持续提升

Core Insights - The company reported a stable revenue growth with a 5% year-on-year increase in operating income, reaching 4.192 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 975 million yuan, also up by 5% [1][2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The core wastewater treatment business drove performance with a revenue of 1.871 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.82% [2] - The increase in revenue was supported by both price and volume growth; the wastewater treatment service fee in Chengdu rose to 2.74 yuan per ton from 2.44 yuan per ton in 2024, enhancing profitability of new projects [2] - New operational projects, such as the Xiwayan Reclaimed Water Plant, contributed to increased treatment volume during the reporting period [2] Water Supply Business Performance - The water supply business generated revenue of 1.427 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 4.25 percentage points to 48.02% despite a slowdown in water volume growth due to urban population growth deceleration [2] - The Chengdu Water Supply Plant (Phase III) has entered trial operation, adding 400,000 tons per day of capacity, effectively meeting the main urban area's water demand during peak summer [2] Dividend Policy and Future Growth - The company has a stable profit distribution policy, having distributed cash dividends of 1.87 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 558 million yuan [3] - Future growth is expected from ongoing projects in wastewater treatment and solid waste management, with a significant decline in capital expenditures anticipated, improving free cash flow and enabling higher dividend payouts [3] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 9.878 billion, 10.808 billion, and 11.851 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.17%, 9.41%, and 9.65% respectively [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are 2.257 billion, 2.504 billion, and 2.781 billion yuan, with growth rates of 13.06%, 10.97%, and 11.06% respectively [3] - Corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 9.19, 8.28, and 7.46, with EPS of 0.76, 0.84, and 0.93 yuan [3]