比亚迪(002594):二季度单车利润探底犹显韧性 中长维度修复可期
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-31 00:44

Core Viewpoint - BYD reported a revenue of 371.28 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.3% [1] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.511 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 13.8% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, BYD's revenue reached 200.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.0% and 17.9% respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 6.36 billion yuan, showing a decline of 29.9% year-on-year and 30.6% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Excluding profits from BYD Electronics, the Q2 net profit was 5.63 billion yuan, down 33.5% year-on-year and 35.7% quarter-on-quarter [1] Margin Analysis - The gross margin in Q2 2025 significantly decreased from 20.1% to 16.3%, primarily due to mismatches in sales volume and pricing [2] - The average selling price (ASP) for the first half of 2025 showed a downward trend, with values of 152,000, 139,000, 143,000, 151,000, 146,000, and 142,000 yuan [2] - Q2 sales volume was 1.142 million units, reflecting year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 15.8% and 14.1% respectively [2] Profit Resilience - R&D expenses in Q2 amounted to 15.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1% [3] - The implementation of a terminal subsidy policy in Q2 reduced profits by approximately 1-1.5 billion yuan [3] - Adjusted net profit for Q2, accounting for additional R&D and dealer rebates, is estimated at around 8.51 billion yuan, with an adjusted per-unit profit of 6,800 yuan, down 21% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in per-unit profit in the second half of 2025, driven by seasonal production and sales increases, cost reduction, and efficiency improvements [3] - BYD aims to achieve overseas sales of 1 million units for the full year, having completed 464,000 units in H1 [3] - The high-end model segment is expected to grow, with models like Tengshi, Fangchengbao, and Yangwang accounting for 6.9% of sales in H1 [3] Earnings Forecast - BYD is projected to achieve revenues of 1,001.832 billion, 1,208.546 billion, and 1,367.870 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 54 billion, 67 billion, and 81 billion yuan respectively [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 19.3, 15.5, and 12.8 for the same years [4]