Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-31 02:36Core Insights - In H1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 80.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.81 billion yuan, a reduction in losses by 0.98 billion yuan [1] - Q2 2025 saw operating revenue of 40.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit of 0.24 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [1] Business Analysis - Revenue growth was driven by an increase in passenger transport, with revenue reaching 73.2 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6 billion yuan year-on-year. This was supported by a rise in capacity and passenger load factor, although offset by a decline in yield [2] - The company’s RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with international RPK increasing by 17%. However, passenger kilometer yield decreased by 4.9% [2] - Cargo revenue increased by 2.5 billion yuan to 3.6 billion yuan, driven by higher capacity and load factor, despite a slight decline in yield [2] Cost and Financial Performance - The decline in oil prices led to an improvement in unit costs, with the unit cost per seat kilometer at 0.44 yuan, down 2.17% year-on-year. The gross margin for H1 2025 was 3%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points [3] - Total expenses related to sales, management, research, and finance decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with financial expenses dropping significantly due to reduced interest payments and recorded exchange gains [3] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a net profit of 0.24 billion yuan, an increase of 1.35 billion yuan year-on-year, attributed to improved gross margin and reduced financial expenses [3] Industry Outlook - Recent regulatory measures by the Civil Aviation Administration of China aim to mitigate "involution" competition, which is expected to improve airline revenue levels in the short term [3] - The industry is projected to experience low single-digit growth in supply due to constraints from order shortages and production capacity, while passenger volume is expected to maintain high single-digit growth. A supply-demand turning point is anticipated in 2026, potentially leading to increased ticket prices and profit release for the company [3] Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.8 billion, 6 billion, and 9.3 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting slower-than-expected demand recovery [4]