耐普矿机(300818)：短期业绩承压 长期增长可期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to the absence of EPC contracting business in the same period last year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025 H1, the company achieved revenue of 410 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.99 million yuan, down 80% year-on-year [1] - Revenue from various business segments included: rubber wear-resistant products (290 million yuan, -3%), mining metal spare parts (58.05 million yuan, -3%), mineral processing equipment and spare parts (43.15 million yuan, -9%), and mining pipelines (15.26 million yuan, +5%) [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The company made significant progress in its overseas strategy, deepening its presence in the "Belt and Road" market [1] - On June 30, 2025, the company announced the signing of two five-year supply contracts with a leading copper producer in Kazakhstan, which produced over 400,000 tons of copper in 2023 [1] - The company has been actively expanding its overseas market, with an average overseas revenue share of 57% over the past five years and a CAGR of 30% [1] Group 3: Industry Trends - The company is enhancing its upstream copper and silver mining development and strengthening industry chain collaboration by acquiring a 22.5% stake in Swiss Virdad Resources [2] - This acquisition will secure development rights for the Alacran copper and silver mine, injecting incremental demand into the traditional mineral processing equipment and spare parts business [2] - The market for wear-resistant spare parts is expected to see long-term growth due to rising copper production and declining copper grades [3] - The penetration rate of rubber wear-resistant spare parts is increasing, as they offer better wear resistance, longer lifespan, and lighter weight compared to metal parts [3] - The company is also expanding into the cylinder market, which presents significant growth opportunities [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 980 million yuan, 1.28 billion yuan, and 1.58 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -12%, 30%, and 24% respectively [4] - Net profit projections for the same period are 90 million yuan, 130 million yuan, and 190 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -26%, 48%, and 48% respectively [4] - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 52, 35, and 24X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [4]