天风证券：给予中国中冶买入评级

Core Viewpoint - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China MCC) has shown a significant year-on-year growth in its Q2 performance, with a non-recurring profit increase of 31%, leading to a "Buy" rating from Tianfeng Securities [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, China MCC reported a revenue of 237.53 billion, a decrease of 20.52% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 3.10 billion, down 25.31% [1] - Q2 alone saw a revenue of 115.26 billion, a decline of 22.59%, but a slight increase in net profit attributable to shareholders by 1.43% [1] - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 6.15 billion, 6.66 billion, and 7.27 billion respectively [1] Business Segments - In H1 2025, revenue from engineering contracting, specialty businesses, and comprehensive real estate was 216.91 billion, 18.31 billion, and 4.80 billion respectively, with declines of 21.79%, 5.23%, and 4.63% [2] - The mining resources segment showed potential with profits from various projects, including 230 million from the Papua New Guinea nickel-cobalt project and 150 million from the Pakistan copper-gold project [2] - The company is advancing the feasibility studies and road construction for the Afghanistan Aynak copper mine, with 8.9 kilometers of the access road completed [2] Contracting and Orders - In H1 2025, new contracts signed totaled 548.2 billion, a decrease of 19.1%, but the core business segments of metallurgy and non-ferrous mining saw an increase in their share of new contracts [3] - The company achieved a significant milestone with the signing of the first overseas low-carbon ironmaking project in Brazil [3] - New contracts in overseas markets reached 57.69 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.5% [3] Profitability and Cash Flow - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 10.09%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 1.71% [4] - Operating cash flow showed improvement with a net outflow of 21.99 billion, a reduction of 6.42 billion compared to the previous year, attributed to enhanced collection efforts and cost-cutting measures [4] Earnings Forecast - Recent earnings forecasts from various institutions indicate a range of net profit predictions for 2025, with estimates varying from 6.09 billion to 8.16 billion [6]