突发黑天鹅！

Core Viewpoint - The political risks in Southeast Asia are rising due to escalating protests in Indonesia and leadership turmoil in Thailand, impacting the stock markets in both countries [2][5]. Group 1: Indonesia's Political and Economic Situation - Protests in Indonesia were triggered by outrage over lawmakers receiving housing allowances of 50 million Indonesian rupiah per month, which is nearly ten times the minimum wage in Jakarta [10]. - President Prabowo canceled his trip to China due to the protests, which have resulted in at least four deaths and widespread unrest across major cities [5][12]. - The protests reflect broader discontent over rising living costs, tax increases, and layoffs, with over 42,000 workers laid off in the first half of the year, a 32% increase from the previous year [12]. - The wealth disparity is stark, with the wealth of Indonesia's 50 richest individuals equating to that of 50 million citizens [12]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Perspectives - Indonesia's stock index fell by 1.5%, the largest drop among regional markets, while Thailand's index decreased by 1.1% [2]. - Analysts express a cautious outlook on Indonesia, suggesting that the political risks will increase and the risk premium for the stock market will rise, leading to a low allocation stance due to unreflective valuations of economic issues [6][7]. - In contrast, analysts are more optimistic about Thailand, citing cheaper valuations and potential economic stimulation from a new prime minister [7]. - In August, Indonesia attracted a net foreign capital inflow of $676 million, while Thailand experienced an outflow of $670 million [7]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite the current turmoil, some analysts believe that the long-term outlook remains unchanged due to potential monetary policy easing and market valuation advantages [8].