美联储官员密集释放“鸽派”信号 降息预期持续升温

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September and anticipates further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months, unless there is a significant deterioration in employment data and inflation remains controlled [1][2] - Several Federal Reserve officials have recently signaled a dovish stance, with New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly indicating that rate cuts may be appropriate soon [1][2] - Fed Chair Powell's shift in tone at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium suggests that despite inflation risks, the Fed may lower rates in the coming months, indicating a need to adjust monetary policy based on economic outlook and risk balance [1][3] Group 2 - Chief Economist at Minsheng Bank, Wen Bin, notes that Powell's focus has shifted to the downside risks in the labor market, implying that the short-term risks of employment outweigh inflation risks [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting results will be announced on September 17, with key employment and inflation data to be released on September 5 and September 11, respectively [2] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September have risen significantly, with an 86.4% probability according to FedWatch, up from 37.7% a month prior [3] Group 3 - Chief Economist Zhao Wei indicates that Powell's policy stance has shifted to a "neutral dovish" position, balancing the risks of stagflation, and suggests that the Fed may need to adjust its policy stance towards easing [3][4] - The necessity of a rate cut in September may depend on the unemployment rate remaining low and inflation not rebounding significantly; otherwise, the Fed may refrain from cutting rates [4] - The expectation of two rate cuts within the year remains a baseline assumption, with the possibility of consecutive cuts if economic slowdown continues in the fourth quarter [4]