外强内弱格局延续 沪锌期货难有深跌

Market Overview - As of August 29, 2025, the main contract for zinc futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 22,140 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest of 8,800 contracts [1] - During the week of August 25-29, the zinc futures opened at 22,220 CNY/ton, reached a high of 22,465 CNY/ton, and a low of 22,030 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of -0.47% [1] Inventory and Supply - On August 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported zinc warehouse receipts of 36,037 tons, a decrease of 176 tons from the previous trading day [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported registered zinc warehouse receipts of 43,500 tons and canceled receipts of 14,500 tons, with a reduction of 3,750 tons; total zinc inventory was 58,000 tons, down by 2,025 tons [2] - As of August 28, the total zinc ingot inventory across seven regions in China was 144,500 tons, an increase of 11,600 tons compared to August 21 and an increase of 6,000 tons compared to August 25 [2] Institutional Insights - According to Jianxin Futures, domestic maintenance in August was limited, leading to an increase in refined zinc production to approximately 621,500 tons, keeping supply ample; however, downstream demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and environmental restrictions affecting production and transportation in North China [3] - Hualian Futures noted that the speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman at the global central bank meeting has led to a gradual digestion of market sentiment; upcoming macro data to watch includes the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for July [3] - Basic data indicates that maintenance in Inner Mongolia, Hunan, and Henan will lead to reduced output, while recovery in Yunnan, Hunan, and Guangxi will offset this; overall, a slight decrease in production is expected next month [3]