Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosheng Securities suggests that the adjustment space for the bond market is limited, indicating potential investment opportunities as stock market valuations rise [1] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market's performance is increasingly correlated with broader fixed income markets, including loans and non-standard financial products, rather than solely with the stock market [1] - The downward trend in broad interest rates, including loan rates, remains unchanged despite a decline in real returns from the real economy [1] - The excessive rise in interest rates at the beginning of the year is gradually being digested over time, as reflected in the shape of the yield curve and the year-on-year decline in interest rates [1] Interest Rate Projections - Guosheng Securities projects that the upper limits for 10-year and 30-year government bonds will remain around 1.75-1.8% and 2.05-2.1%, respectively [1] Market Indicators - The stock market's performance and non-bank positions are considered key indicators for assessing short-term adjustment pressures [1] - A potential signal for increasing allocations may arise if the stock market ceases to rise unilaterally or if fund positions drop to low levels, indicating that bearish forces may have exhausted [1]
国盛证券：债市继续调整空间有限 观察配置机会
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-09-01 00:29