聚合顺(605166)：二季度业绩承压 下半年景气度有望改善

Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.87% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 111 million yuan, down 27.60% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, operating revenue was 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.93% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.11% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q2 was 30 million yuan, a significant year-on-year decrease of 63.87% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 63.07% [1] Market Conditions - The decline in performance in Q2 2025 was primarily due to the downturn in the PA6 market [2] - The average price of caprolactam in Q2 2025 was 9,180 yuan/ton, down 12.7% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The average price of PA6 conventional spinning was 10,087 yuan/ton, down 12.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The price differences for PA6 products also saw significant declines, indicating pressure from global trade tensions and domestic demand [3] Production Capacity and Future Outlook - The company has production bases in Hangzhou, Changde, Tengzhou, and Zibo, with several projects expected to come online in the next two years [3] - The company anticipates a significant increase in PA6 demand driven by trends in outdoor economy and lightweight automotive applications [4] - The PA6 production capacity is projected to reach 7.87 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24% [4] - The company is also focusing on the PA66 market, which is expected to benefit from engineering plastic demand growth [4] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to the parent company of 280 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 530 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - Corresponding PE ratios based on the closing price on August 29, 2025, are projected to be 14.4X, 10.7X, and 7.7X [5]