苏盐井神(603299)：行业底部业绩韧性凸显 盐穴储气利润释放可期

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting industry challenges, but demonstrated resilience through cost management and production increases [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 340 million yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year [1] - The adjusted net profit was 270 million yuan, a decline of 40.6% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.09 billion yuan, down 24.2% year-on-year and 14.0% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 180 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.1% [1] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 120 million yuan, down 48.1% year-on-year and 14.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] Industry Context - The industry is facing pressure, with prices for salt and soda ash declining: H1 2025 saw salt prices drop by 12.8% and soda ash prices by 35.3% year-on-year [1] - The company managed to maintain relatively stable salt product prices compared to the East China market [1] - Production of salt and salt chemical products increased to 4.7232 million tons in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.78% [1] - The company benefited from lower procurement costs for raw materials, with average prices for coal, coke, and stone down by 17.3%, 24.3%, and 16.7% respectively [1] Competitive Advantages - The company is a leading player in the East China salt industry, leveraging its abundant high-quality salt resources and low-cost supply chain [2] - The underground gas storage project is expected to enhance profits, with the first phase already injecting 14,870 million cubic meters of gas [2] - The integration of salt cavern resources is progressing, with clear long-term performance returns anticipated [2] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 630 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 1.05 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -17.7%, +32.0%, and +25.6% [3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 13.7, 10.4, and 8.3 for the respective years [3] - The traditional business has cost advantages, and the development of gas storage and other integrated utilization methods is expected to open a second growth curve for the company [3]