Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive outlook of fund manager Gu Xinfeng from Huaxia Fund, emphasizing three historical turning points in the capital market: liquidity, industrial cycle, and confidence, which together form the foundation for a sustained market uptrend [1] Liquidity - The current federal funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.50%, indicating that many global funds are experiencing a risk-free return exceeding 4% [2] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, projected to occur seven times by 2026, are seen as a systemic benefit for global equity assets, particularly for the currently low-valued Chinese capital market [2] - The low absolute level of the ten-year government bond yield in China suggests weak attractiveness for bonds, leading to a shift in favor of equity assets as the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle [2] Industrial Cycle - Gu Xinfeng emphasizes that new industrial cycles often drive sustained market growth, with the current cycle being powered by AI, which enhances productivity across various sectors and creates new demand [3] - The ongoing AI infrastructure phase is leading to surging orders for AI chips, optical modules, PCBs, and server companies, resulting in performance exceeding expectations [3] - The investment opportunities in this industrial cycle are just beginning, as the AI infrastructure is expected to enable exponential economic growth [3] Confidence - The article notes that many industries are experiencing a "DeepSeek" moment in China, where the country is transitioning from imitation to innovation, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - Factors contributing to this shift include an engineer dividend, cost advantages in talent, and a strong work ethic, which have led to breakthroughs in industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [4] - The recognition of Chinese core assets by global funds is expected to increase, with a potential rise in the premium of Hong Kong-listed companies over A-shares [4]
华夏基金顾鑫峰：资本市场正迎来三大历史性拐点
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang·2025-09-01 01:17