降息预期升温，金价强势上涨，再破3500美元

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have been supported by rising expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and political uncertainties, with prices breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - From August 25 to August 29, gold prices increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 2.86% to close at $3,516.10 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) saw a weekly increase of 1.47%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) surged by 8.38% [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Inflation Concerns - U.S. economic data released in August was disappointing, raising concerns about stagflation [1] - The U.S. July CPI remained flat at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose to 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3% and marking the highest level since February [1] - The U.S. July PPI surged to 3.3%, the highest level since February, significantly above the expected 2.5%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, the largest since June 2022 [1] - The overall PCE price index for July increased by 2.6%, meeting expectations, while the core PCE price index rose to 2.9%, up 0.1 percentage points from June, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Analysts from a U.S. bank predict that gold prices will continue to rise, potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by the first half of 2026 [1] - The analysts noted that increasing inflation and potential interest rate cuts create a favorable environment for dollar depreciation, which is likely to drive up gold prices [1]