新兴市场陷“特朗普悖论”：股市市值激增4.3万亿，企业盈利却连续13季度滑坡

Group 1 - The beginning of Trump's second presidential term has positively impacted emerging market stocks, similar to his first term, but corporate earnings are under pressure due to trade and fiscal policies, potentially losing momentum [1] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has risen continuously from January to August this year, marking the third occurrence in 37 years, with the previous instances in 2017 and 1993 [1] - Despite a wealth increase of $4.3 trillion for investors this year, developing country companies are struggling to meet 2025 earnings expectations, having underperformed for 13 consecutive quarters [1][4] Group 2 - Concerns over tariff-related risks are leading to a cautious outlook on emerging market stocks, with expectations for earnings per share to decline again after a temporary pause in tariffs [2] - Initial expectations that Trump's tariffs would delay U.S. monetary easing and strengthen the dollar have been overturned, resulting in a favorable environment for emerging markets as funds flow out of the U.S. [4] - Nearly half of the companies in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index have failed to meet analyst profit expectations this year, with an average shortfall of nearly 8% [4] Group 3 - Following a 50% tariff on Indian exports, Indian stocks have become the most underweighted by investors, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment [5] - Tata Motors reported a 63% decline in net profit, attributing the loss to U.S. tariffs, with additional costs estimated at $341 million [5] - Analysts have begun to lower future earnings forecasts, with the MSCI index's average expectation declining by about 1% over the past eight weeks, indicating a need for an 11.4% earnings growth in the next 12 months to meet current expectations [6]