国内库存回落叠加9月降息预期提升，铜价有望上行

Group 1: Copper Market - The domestic inventory decline combined with the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is likely to support copper prices [2][1] - This week, the price changes for copper were +1.54% for LME copper, +0.91% for SHFE copper, and +2.78% for COMEX copper [2][1] - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is at 127,000 tons, reflecting a decrease of 3.49% [2][1] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to rising inventory levels [3] - The price of alumina has decreased by 1.24% to 3,185 CNY/ton, while the aluminum futures contract fell by 3.86% to 3,017 CNY/ton [3] - Domestic aluminum inventory has increased by 4.54% to 622,000 tons, indicating a potential for price stabilization around 20,000 to 21,000 CNY/ton [3] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium salt is experiencing inventory reduction due to seasonal demand, with potential for price recovery [4][5] - The price of lithium carbonate has dropped by 5.07% to 80,000 CNY/ton, while spodumene concentrate fell by 4.28% to 894 USD/ton [4][5] - The supply side shows a decrease in lithium carbonate production by 0.6% to 19,000 tons [5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a decline in raw material imports and an extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5] - Domestic cobalt prices increased by 2.30% to 267,000 CNY/ton [5] - The import volume of cobalt intermediate products in July was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 27% month-on-month and 73% year-on-year [5]