Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price raised from HKD 20.6 to HKD 27, driven by strong performance in H1 2025 and a new share buyback plan that boosts market confidence [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, China Hongqiao achieved a net profit of RMB 12.3 billion, a 35% year-on-year increase, aligning with previous profit forecasts; core net profit, excluding convertible bond fair value losses, reached RMB 14.9 billion, up 42% year-on-year [1][2]. - Revenue and profit growth were observed across all three core business segments: - Aluminum alloy products (64% of H1 revenue) generated RMB 51.9 billion, a 5% increase, with sales up 2.4% to 2.91 million tons and average selling price (ASP) up 2.7% to RMB 17,853/ton [2]. - Alumina business (26% of H1 revenue) saw revenue surge 28% to RMB 20.7 billion, with sales up 10% to 6.37 million tons and ASP up 5% to RMB 3,243/ton [2]. - Aluminum processing products (10% of H1 revenue) reported a 6.5% revenue increase to RMB 8 billion, with sales up 3.4% to 392,000 tons and ASP up 2.9% to RMB 20,615/ton [2]. Share Buyback and Market Confidence - The company did not declare an interim dividend this year, which surprised the market; however, it announced a new share buyback plan with a minimum investment of HKD 3 billion, representing 1.4% of total shares and 4.5% of free float, valid until May 2026 [2][3]. - The buyback reflects management's confidence in the company's future and aims to offset potential dilution from convertible bonds [3]. Future Outlook - China Hongqiao's earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 12%-14% due to tight supply in the aluminum industry and expected declines in raw material prices, particularly coal [3]. - The company is projected to benefit from a 3% profit increase for every 1% rise in aluminum prices and a 0.5% profit increase for every 1% drop in coal prices, indicating a favorable cost and pricing environment [3]. Valuation - The target price of HKD 27 is based on a forward P/E ratio of 8.6 times for 2026, reflecting a premium for improved financial health and the ongoing industry upcycle [3]. - Despite recent stock price increases, the estimated dividend yield could reach 7.9% assuming a 60% payout ratio, indicating continued valuation attractiveness [3].
30亿回购计划提振信心 招银国际上调中国宏桥(01378)目标价至27港元