金价如期上行，贵金属板块弹性有望释放

Key Points - The precious metals sector has seen significant price increases for gold and silver, with London spot gold rising 2.81% to $3429.15 per ounce and Shanghai gold increasing 1.20% to ¥785.12 per gram [2][5] - London spot silver rose 2.84% to $38.80 per ounce, while Shanghai silver increased 1.98% to ¥9386 per kilogram [2][5] - The decline in Shanghai gold holdings by 7.94% to 390,000 contracts contrasts with a 1.62% increase in Shanghai silver holdings to 773,300 contracts [2][5] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to increased expectations of interest rate cuts and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference have led to increased bets on rate cuts [2][3] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump poses a challenge to the Fed's independence, with potential legal implications [3][4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the recent large-scale attacks by Russia on Ukraine, are influencing market sentiment and may lead to new sanctions against Russia [4] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by expected interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with central bank gold purchases expected to support prices [4][5] - The World Gold Council projects global gold demand to reach 4974 tons in 2024, a 1.5% increase from 2023, driven by strong central bank purchases [4][5] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, with reserves reaching 73.96 million ounces as of the end of July [4][5]