Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that persistent inflation in the UK reduces the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England within the year, with market expectations for the first 25 basis point cut now pushed to March 2026 [1] - Recent data shows that the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK is expected to reach 4% in September, which aligns with previous forecasts and has led to minimal market reaction [1] - The market's shift in expectations regarding interest rate cuts suggests that discussions around potential cuts will likely be more relevant in 2026 rather than 2025, as indicated by the flattening of the SONIA futures curve [1] Group 2 - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GBP/USD is currently oscillating between 40.00 and 60.00, indicating a significant contraction in market volatility and a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces [2] - Key support for GBP/USD is identified at the August 11 low of 1.3400, which is crucial as it coincides with the lower boundary of the current consolidation range; a break below this level could intensify downward pressure [2] - On the upside, the July 1 high near 1.3790 serves as a critical resistance level, and a breakout above this point could open up greater upward potential for the currency pair [2]
通胀顽固制约英国央行 高利率将维持更长时间
Jin Tou Wang·2025-09-01 04:00