华安证券：给予川发龙蟒增持评级

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Chuanfa Longmang's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with ongoing integration in the industrial chain, leading to an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Chuanfa Longmang achieved operating revenue of 4.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.77%, while operating costs were 4.08 billion yuan, up 19.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 239 million yuan, down 18.69% year-on-year [1] - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.49%. Operating costs were 2.247 billion yuan, up 13.35% year-on-year and 22.54% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 135 million yuan, down 28.73% year-on-year but up 31.20% quarter-on-quarter [2] Product Pricing and Production - The price of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate rose due to high raw material costs and strong market demand, with an average market price of 6,437.75 yuan/ton in Q2 2025, a 6.67% increase quarter-on-quarter. The production volume for industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate was 216,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.51% [3] - The average market price for fertilizer-grade monoammonium phosphate in Q2 2025 was 3,297.74 yuan/ton, up 5.48% quarter-on-quarter, while production volume decreased by 1.68% year-on-year to 5.04 million tons [3] Industry Dynamics - The phosphoric acid and ammonium industry is experiencing a favorable shift due to policy-driven changes, with Chuanfa Longmang completing acquisitions that enhance its competitive position. The company acquired 60% of Tianbao Company and 10% of Tiansheng Mining, which will improve its market standing [4] - Recent policies aimed at energy conservation and emissions reduction are leading to the exit of inefficient production capacities, which is expected to enhance industry concentration and competitiveness [4] Strategic Development - Chuanfa Longmang is focused on building a green circular economy industrial chain, leveraging scarce resources and core technologies. The company produced 1.1741 million tons of various phosphochemical products in the first half of 2025 [5] - The company is advancing its lithium battery materials projects and has completed the construction of a 6,000-ton/year lithium iron phosphate facility, with ongoing projects to enhance its resource reserves [5][6] Investment Outlook - The projected net profits for Chuanfa Longmang for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 653 million yuan, 810 million yuan, and 945 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 34, 27, and 23 times [7]