8月金价大涨收官，9月或有望突破历史新高

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices surged over 2% last week, closing above $3400 per ounce, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][2] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold prices increased by $157.77 in August, marking a 4.8% rise, the best monthly performance since April [1] - As of August 29, the CME gold open interest rose by 39,208 contracts to 478,014 contracts, indicating increased bullish sentiment [8] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR GOLD TRUST, saw its holdings increase by 20.91 tons, reaching a total of 977.68 tons [8] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The dovish tone from the Federal Reserve has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September, despite some positive economic data [2][3] - Fed officials, including Governor Waller, expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, citing risks in the labor market [3][4] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to further influence gold prices and Fed policy [1][3] Group 3: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, contributing to bullish sentiment in the gold market [6][7] - The potential for Trump to exert greater influence over the selection of regional Fed presidents could further impact market perceptions of Fed independence [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices are testing resistance around $3453, with potential targets set between $3580 and $3780 [8] - Support levels for gold are identified at $3430-$3400, with critical support at $3380-$3360 [8]