【央行圆桌汇】8月非农数据来袭（2025年9月1日）

Global Central Bank Dynamics - Federal Reserve Governor Cook has filed a federal lawsuit challenging the legality of Trump's dismissal, focusing on the interpretation of the "just cause" clause in the Federal Reserve Act, with the case potentially reaching the Supreme Court [1] - Trump’s administration is considering increasing its influence over the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks, including reviewing the selection process for bank presidents [1] - The Federal Reserve responded to Cook's lawsuit, stating that governors have term and dismissal protections [1] Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Governor Waller supports a 25 basis point rate cut in September, expecting further cuts in the next 3 to 6 months unless there is a significant deterioration in August employment data [2] - New York Fed President Williams believes it is appropriate to lower rates at the right time, indicating that current policy remains moderately restrictive [2] - San Francisco Fed President Daly suggests it is time to adjust policy due to conflicting inflation and employment targets [2] - Dallas Fed President Logan emphasizes the need for improved communication regarding interest rate paths and economic outlook [2] European Central Bank Insights - ECB's Rehn states that inflation risks are "tilted to the downside," indicating potential for future rate cuts [2] - The U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on European exports could slow Eurozone growth by "several percentage points" [2] Other Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Hungary has set its benchmark interest rate at 6.5%, indicating that the fight against inflation is not over [3] - The Bank of the Philippines has cut rates by 25 basis points, with the possibility of further cuts [4] - The Bank of Brazil's survey shows economists expect GDP growth of 1.86% in 2026 and an inflation rate of 4.86% for 2025 [5] - The Bank of Indonesia will continue to participate in the foreign exchange market to maintain the Rupiah's alignment with fundamentals [6] Market Observations - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have increased following Trump's dismissal of Cook, leading to a decline in the dollar [7] - Analysts predict the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace to £70 billion over the next 12 months due to rising yield concerns [8] - Swiss bank analysts suggest that the Reserve Bank of Australia may delay its rate cut path due to unexpectedly high CPI readings [8] - The Philippine central bank appears to be nearing the end of its easing cycle, with expectations for one more rate cut this year [9]