机构：9月钢市需求改善幅度或有不及预期 钢价料先抑后扬

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a downward trend in September, with prices under pressure despite the traditional peak season for demand approaching [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - On September 1, the main rebar futures contract fell below 3100 yuan/ton, with the near-month contract hitting a two-month low of 3029 yuan/ton [1]. - Steel inventory has accumulated for four consecutive weeks since the end of July, increasing by 1.04 million tons [1]. - The coal inventory has risen, leading to a temporary decrease in cost lines, while downstream restocking has slowed [1]. Group 2: Demand Analysis - Although there is a seasonal improvement in steel demand expected in September, the extent of this improvement is uncertain and may not meet expectations [1][3]. - The real estate sector continues to face significant downward pressure, with current policies focused on destocking, limiting the impact on construction material consumption [1][2]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Steel mills are likely to resume production after initial production cuts, which may lead to an increase in electric arc furnace output in September and October [2]. - The changes in demand and steel mill profits will be the main factors influencing steel supply in September and the fourth quarter [2]. Group 4: Price Forecast - The expected price range for rebar in September is between 3100-3350 yuan/ton, while hot-rolled coil prices are projected to range from 3250-3450 yuan/ton [3]. - Iron ore demand is expected to remain high, but with narrowing steel mill profits and ongoing policies, iron and steel production may decline in the fourth quarter [3].